Will a global pandemic of a novel infectious disease, similar to COVID-19, occur by 2030?
One-OffHealth & Medicine4y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 73.4%
Forecasters
32
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleJan 11, 24, 6:53 AM UTCJan 1, 31, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
What will be the next infectious disease to be eradicated?
Manifold MarketsWill the World Health Organization declare another global pandemic before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill there be another global pandemic before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWhen will the FDA reclassify BPC-157 to Category 1?
KalshiEbola pandemic in 2026?
PolymarketHantavirus pandemic in 2026?
PolymarketRules
A COVID-like global pandemic refers to the restrictions and measures implemented by authorities as pointed below:
- Stay-at-Home Orders: Residents are advised or mandated to stay at home except for essential activities, such as buying groceries, seeking medical care, or going to work if their job is deemed essential.
- Closure of Non-Essential Businesses: Non-essential businesses, such as restaurants, bars, gyms, and entertainment venues, may be temporarily closed to reduce gatherings.
- Remote Work: Companies and organizations may implement work-from-home policies to minimize the number of people in offices and other workspaces.
- Travel Restrictions: Restrictions on domestic and international travel may be imposed to prevent the movement of individuals between regions and countries.
- Social Distancing: People are encouraged to maintain physical distance from others, typically around 6 feet.