Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Yes 56.4%
Forecasters
9
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 12 hours ago
StaleDec 19, 23, 1:42 PM UTCMar 3, 45, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will a laser lift a payload to space before 2040?
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Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
PolymarketWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
KalshiSpaceX Starship Flight Test 14
PolymarketRules
Resolves as YES if a directed energy system has levitated a payload of at least 10 grams to the height of 100km before January 1st 2045.
- The payload must be lifted from at maximum 50km by the system (the payload can be released by, for example, a balloon), and must reach an altitude of at least 100km.
- The mass of the payload must be at least 10g when crossing the 100km threshold (the mass of the payload may decrease during levitation due to ablation).
- Questions with the same criteria:
- @/RemNiFHfMN/will-a-directed-energy-system-lift-35fc264bbc88
- @/RemNiFHfMN/will-a-directed-energy-system-lift-42027c4cebd3
Open markets
SpacePOLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic+1.0pt89%
- OpenAI-1.8pt9%
- Google2%
+18 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.7M
- 24h Vol
- $121.9K
LIMITLESSSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- No56.5%
- Yes43.5%
- Total Vol
- $53.1K
- 24h Vol
- $53.1K
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+0.5pt59.4%
- SpaceX-4.0pt38.5%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2.1%
+9 more outcomes
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028-2.0pt63%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-1.0pt51%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
+8 more outcomes
KALSHIHow many launches will SpaceX have in September?
- Above 8-6.0pt84%
- Above 9-21.0pt52%
- Above 10-16.0pt19%
+8 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETWill the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by which date?
- 2027-0.5pt67%
- June 30, 2027-0.5pt53%
- 2026+1.3pt6%
- Which company has the best AI model end of October?
- Third-best AI Lab end of September?
- Which company has the best AI Agent end of September?
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by which date?
- Will a new interstellar visitor be confirmed before 2027?
- Third-best AI Lab end of October?
- AI data center in space by which date?
- Which company has #1 AI model end of September? (Style Control On)
- Highest Grok score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will a laser lift a payload to space before 2045??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 56% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will a laser lift a payload to space before 2045? resolve?
- Will a laser lift a payload to space before 2045? is scheduled to resolve on March 3, 2045.
- How is Will a laser lift a payload to space before 2045? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves as YES if a directed energy system has levitated a payload of at least 10 grams to the height of 100km before January 1st 2045.