Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Yes 60.4%
Forecasters
12
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 15 hours ago
StaleDec 17, 23, 2:58 PM UTCMar 1, 50, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
Resolves as YES if a directed energy system has levitated a payload of at least 10 grams to the height of 100km before January 1st 2050.
- The payload must be lifted from at maximum 50km by the system (the payload can be released by, for example, a balloon), and must reach an altitude of at least 100km.
- The mass of the payload must be at least 10g when crossing the 100km threshold (the mass of the payload may decrease during levitation due to ablation).
- Questions with the same criteria:
- @/RemNiFHfMN/will-a-directed-energy-system-lift-35fc264bbc88
- @/RemNiFHfMN/will-a-directed-energy-system-lift-42027c4cebd3
Open markets
Space
POLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic+1.0pt87.1%
- OpenAI-1.0pt10.9%
- Google-0.1pt2%
+18 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.6M
- 24h Vol
- $124.4K
LIMITLESSSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- Yes59.4%
- No40.6%
- Total Vol
- $178.5K
- 24h Vol
- $45.5K
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028+3.0pt67%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-7.0pt43%
+8 more outcomes
POLYMARKETSpaceX Starship Flight Test 14
- October 3197%
- September 26+21.5pt87%
- Successful splash down?+1.0pt84%
+8 more outcomes
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+1.6pt60.2%
- SpaceX-4.5pt37.8%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2%
+9 more outcomes
KALSHIHow many launches will SpaceX have in September?
- Above 8+3.0pt88%
- Above 9-15.0pt57%
- Above 10-10.0pt23%
+8 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by which date?
- Which company has the best AI model end of October?
- Third-best AI Lab end of September?
- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- Next Grok Model (4.7+) released on?
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by which date?
- Which company has #1 AI model end of September? (Style Control On)
- AI data center in space by which date?
- Third-best AI Lab end of October?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will a laser lift a payload to space before 2050??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 60% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will a laser lift a payload to space before 2050? resolve?
- Will a laser lift a payload to space before 2050? is scheduled to resolve on March 1, 2050.
- How is Will a laser lift a payload to space before 2050? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves as YES if a directed energy system has levitated a payload of at least 10 grams to the height of 100km before January 1st 2050.