Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastTesla 40%Leader of 12 outcomes
Forecasters
52
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 11 hours ago
StaleSep 2, 22, 9:10 PM UTCJan 1, 31, 5:59 AM UTC
Trends
0.2%
0.2%
0.1%
0%
0%
0%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will more than 50% of cars sold in 2030 in the US have self driving capabilities (SAE level 3)?
Manifold MarketsWill the Swedish Transport Workers' Union (Transportarbetareförbundet) officially oppose self driving vehicles?
Manifold MarketsWill intersections where self-driving cars can ignore traffic signals exist in the US by end of 2030?
Manifold MarketsWhich soccer players will transfer clubs before Sep 15, 2026?
KalshiElon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
PolymarketElon Musk # tweets September 11 - September 18, 2026?
PolymarketRules
Miles driven, regardless of “level of autonomy”; will resolve to the top-3 players based on their relative market share.
Open markets
TechKALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 90° or above+68.0pt95.2%
- 88° to 89°-29.0pt1%
- 84° to 85°-6.0pt1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $724.5K
- 24h Vol
- $674.2K
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
- New Orleans+46.0pt99%
- Houston+61.0pt99%
- Minneapolis+3.0pt99%
+19 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $704.2K
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 9, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $75,000 or above99%
- $74,750 or above99%
- $75,250 or above98%
+77 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $483.2K
- 24h Vol
- $482.8K
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
- 180-199+7.0pt33.6%
- 160-179+4.0pt28.9%
- 200-219-3.0pt15.4%
+23 more outcomes
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $73,000 or above+3.0pt99%
- $72,500 or above+3.0pt99%
- $69,000 or above99%
+47 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.3M
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
- 40-64+26.0pt91%
- 65-89-14.0pt9%
- <40-24.4pt0%
+7 more outcomes
- When will Apple release the iPhone 18?
- Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by which date?
- Which company has the best AI model end of September?
- Foldable iPhone Announced Price?
- Bitcoin price at the end of 2026
- When will Apple Inc. release the iPhone 18 Pro?
- Next James Bond actor?
- BTC 15 min · $78,917.56 target
- Highest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 9, 2026?
- Highest temperature in San Francisco on Sep 8, 2026?
- Best AI at the end of 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Who will be the largest players in self-driving in 2030??
- Manifold Markets prices Tesla at 40% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Who will be the largest players in self-driving in 2030? resolve?
- Who will be the largest players in self-driving in 2030? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2031.
- How is Who will be the largest players in self-driving in 2030? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Miles driven, regardless of “level of autonomy”; will resolve to the top-3 players based on their relative market share.