Current community forecast
Jul-Dec 2026 97.8%Leader of 8 outcomes
Forecasters
18
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 6 hours ago
StaleApr 2, 26, 6:19 PM UTCJan 1, 33, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
SpaceX Starship Orbit in 2023? (No) → SpaceX Mars Mission by 2030?
Manifold Markets[ACX 2026] Will SpaceX successfully refuel a Starship in orbit during 2026?
Manifold MarketsBy which Flight of Starship will it reach orbit?
Manifold MarketsWill SpaceX successfully refuel a Starship in orbit during 2026?
FutuurWill a 1-megawatt data center go live in orbit?
KalshiAST SpaceMobile BlueBird satellites in orbit above __ in Q4 2026?
LimitlessRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to the date (UTC) on which a SpaceX Starship vehicle successfully reaches Earth orbit for the first time.
- For the purpose of this market, Achieving Earth orbit means the Starship upper stage (Ship) completes at least one full, uninterrupted revolution around Earth on a trajectory where its perigee remains above the sensible atmosphere (roughly 100 km altitude), such that it could continue orbiting without further propulsion.
- A suborbital trajectory that reenters before completing one full orbit — even if it reaches orbital altitude and velocity briefly — does not count.
- The orbit does not need to be circular, long-lived, or carry any particular payload; what matters is that the vehicle demonstrably enters a closed (or near-closed) elliptical path around the Earth and sustains it for at least one complete revolution.
- High-apogee suborbital hops, intentional deorbit-before-one-revolution test profiles, and breakup during ascent do not count.
Open markets
TechKALSHIBTC price on Sep 22, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $82,000 or above99%
- $82,250 or above99%
- $81,750 or above99%
+77 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.1M
- 24h Vol
- $1.1M
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 15 - September 22, 2026?
- 200-219+26.0pt67%
- 220-239+26.0pt32%
- 240-259-0.1pt1%
+23 more outcomes
KALSHIBitcoin price at the end of 2026
- 85,000 to 89,999.99-0.9pt11.8%
- 80,000 to 84,999.99-0.5pt11.8%
- 75,000 to 79,999.99+0.2pt9.8%
+25 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 25, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $65,500 or above+2.0pt99%
- $66,500 or above99%
- $67,000 or above99%
+47 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.6M
- 24h Vol
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 22, 2026 at 9am EDT?
- $85,500 or above99%
- $85,400 or above99%
- $85,300 or above99%
+97 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $563.6K
- 24h Vol
- $526.1K
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 18 - September 25, 2026?
- 200-219+7.0pt34%
- 220-239+12.0pt22.6%
- 180-199-15.5pt19.8%
+23 more outcomes
- Where will it rain on Sep 22, 2026?
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- ETH price on Sep 25, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- How many launches will SpaceX have in September?
- Best AI at the end of 2026?
- Which company has the best AI model end of September?
- ETH price on Sep 22, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- Nasdaq-100 price on Sep 22, 2026 at 4pm EDT?
- Highest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 22, 2026?
- Nasdaq-100 close price end of 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for When will Starship reach orbit??
- Manifold Markets prices Jul-Dec 2026 at 97.8% as of September 22, 2026.
- When does When will Starship reach orbit? resolve?
- When will Starship reach orbit? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2033.
- How is When will Starship reach orbit? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria