Current community forecast
15 91%Leader of 12 outcomes
Forecasters
66
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+1.0 pts
Market data
Updated 8 hours ago
StaleMar 22, 24, 5:57 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
[ACX 2026] Will SpaceX successfully refuel a Starship in orbit during 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill SpaceX successfully refuel a Starship in orbit during 2026?
FutuurSpaceX Starship Orbit in 2023? (No) → SpaceX Mars Mission by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Starship reach orbit?
Manifold MarketsSpaceX Starship manned flight to successfully land on the moon by the end of 2026?
FutuurAST SpaceMobile BlueBird satellites in orbit above __ in Q4 2026?
LimitlessRules
An orbit around earth is defined as having a perigee above 100 km.
- All past flights have targeted perigees with negative values (inside the surface of the earth).
- So when do you think Starship will have a perigee above 100km?
- This obviously assumes Starship is in one piece and flying nominally when it reaches this orbit.
- If a piece of debris once belonging to Starship happens to reach orbit it will not count (resolve NO).
- Starship must actually fly to orbit if it is targeted so if orbit is not reached in flight this market resolves NO.
Open markets
Tech
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 22, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $82,000 or above99%
- $82,250 or above99%
- $81,750 or above99%
+77 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.1M
- 24h Vol
- $1.1M
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 15 - September 22, 2026?
- 200-219+26.0pt67%
- 220-239+26.0pt32%
- 240-259-0.1pt1%
+23 more outcomes
KALSHIBitcoin price at the end of 2026
- 85,000 to 89,999.99-0.9pt11.8%
- 80,000 to 84,999.99-0.5pt11.8%
- 75,000 to 79,999.99+0.2pt9.8%
+25 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 25, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $65,500 or above+2.0pt99%
- $66,500 or above99%
- $67,000 or above99%
+47 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.6M
- 24h Vol
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 22, 2026 at 9am EDT?
- $85,500 or above99%
- $85,400 or above99%
- $85,300 or above99%
+97 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $563.6K
- 24h Vol
- $526.1K
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 18 - September 25, 2026?
- 200-219+7.0pt34%
- 220-239+12.0pt22.6%
- 180-199-15.5pt19.8%
+23 more outcomes
- Where will it rain on Sep 22, 2026?
- Elon Musk # tweets September 21 - September 23, 2026?
- ETH price on Sep 25, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- How many launches will SpaceX have in September?
- Best AI at the end of 2026?
- Which company has the best AI model end of September?
- ETH price on Sep 22, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- Nasdaq-100 price on Sep 22, 2026 at 4pm EDT?
- Highest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 22, 2026?
- Nasdaq-100 close price end of 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for By which Flight of Starship will it reach orbit??
- Manifold Markets prices 15 at 91% as of September 22, 2026.
- When does By which Flight of Starship will it reach orbit? resolve?
- By which Flight of Starship will it reach orbit? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is By which Flight of Starship will it reach orbit? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: An orbit around earth is defined as having a perigee above 100 km.