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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Tech
  3. By which Flight of Starship will it reach orbit?
Manifold Markets

By which Flight of Starship will it reach orbit?

TechYearlySpace6mo
Manifold MarketsManifold MarketsNo KYC
Current community forecast
Manifold Markets
4 (all flight #s are on or before) 0%
Leader of 12 outcomes
Forecasters

65

Question type

multiple choice

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 5 minutes ago

Mar 22, 24, 5:57 PMJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM

Trends

Outcome24hChance
Manifold Markets
4 (all flight #s are on or before)
0%
Manifold Markets
5
0%

Selected outcome

121%

Rules

An orbit around earth is defined as having a perigee above 100 km.

Manifold Markets
  • All past flights have targeted perigees with negative values (inside the surface of the earth).
  • So when do you think Starship will have a perigee above 100km?
  • This obviously assumes Starship is in one piece and flying nominally when it reaches this orbit.
  • If a piece of debris once belonging to Starship happens to reach orbit it will not count (resolve NO).
  • Starship must actually fly to orbit if it is targeted so if orbit is not reached in flight this market resolves NO.

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Rules

An orbit around earth is defined as having a perigee above 100 km.

Manifold Markets
  • All past flights have targeted perigees with negative values (inside the surface of the earth).
  • So when do you think Starship will have a perigee above 100km?
  • This obviously assumes Starship is in one piece and flying nominally when it reaches this orbit.
  • If a piece of debris once belonging to Starship happens to reach orbit it will not count (resolve NO).
  • Starship must actually fly to orbit if it is targeted so if orbit is not reached in flight this market resolves NO.