Current community forecast
No 63.9%
No 63.9%Forecasters
22
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 9 hours ago
StaleMay 9, 23, 8:42 PM UTCJan 1, 00, 7:59 AM UTC
Rules
X = btc/usd on Jan 1 2023 (16605) Y = btc/usd on Jan 1 2100 Resolves PROB to 5*((Y/X)^(1/77)-1)
- If the prob would be less than zero, it resolves NO.
- If USD ceases to exist we use the successor currency at the last available exchange rate from USD to the successor currency.
- If BTC ceases to exist we use the successor currency at the last available exchange rate from btc to the successor currency.
- If USD ceases to exist without an obvious successor this resolves YES If BTC ceases to exist without an obvious successor this resolves NO
- If AI kills everyone and both cease to exist simultaneously, this uses the last available exchange rate.
