Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: Yes (99%)
Resolved: Oct 12, 2026, 2:13 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Winning Outcome
Yes
At 7 days out
—
At 24 hours out
—
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 13, 2026, 12:28 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
Yes99%
No1%
Won
Lost
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
This market resolves YES if SPY reaches a price of 774 (representing a 20% gain from 645) before it reaches a price of 516 (representing a 20% loss from 645).
- It resolves NO if SPY reaches 516 before reaching 774.
- The market will be resolved based on the daily closing price as reported on Yahoo Finance (https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SPY/) or any other major financial data provider if Yahoo Finance is unavailable.
- Current SPY price as of August 14, 2025: ~645
- Resolution criteria:
- YES: SPY closes at or above 774 before ever closing at or below 516