Real money political prediction markets will be legal in the US for a month before 2030
RegulationOne-OffUS PoliticsManifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: Yes (84.4%)
Resolved: Oct 15, 2026, 7:19 AM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 15, 2026, 8:12 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Trends
Won
Lost
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will real money prediction markets be legal in the US before 2028?
Manifold MarketsConditional on prediction markets becoming mostly legal in the US by 2030, was it because commissioners at the CFTC changed their mind?
Manifold MarketsIf I expand my trading dashboard to cover other real money markets, will I get into legal trouble?
Manifold MarketsWill the CFTC permit real-money prediction markets on the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Manifold MarketsLaw banning sports prediction markets enacted in 2026?
PolymarketWill a law restricting sports trades on prediction markets be enacted in 2026?
PredictItRules
Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.
