This market resolved: 5-7.5 (88.6%)
Resolved: Jul 24, 2026, 11:32 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Current community forecast5-7.5 88.6%+11.4ptLeader of 10 outcomes
Forecasters
11
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 26 days ago
StaleApr 9, 26, 4:49 PMJul 24, 26, 11:32 PM
Probability Timeline
>501.1%
40-501.1%
30-401.1%
25-301.1%
20-251.1%
15-201.3%
10-151.9%
7.5-101.5%
5-7.588.6%
<51%
88.6%
1.9%
1.5%
1.3%
1.1%
1.1%
1.1%
1.1%
1.1%
1%
Rules
This market will resolve to the RATIO of the highest 50% time horizon, to the highest 80% time horizon, as reported by METR, for the first Claude Mythos model to appear on METR's graph.
- 'Mythos' includes any Claude model that sits above 'Opus' in Anthropic's naming scheme, even if Anthropic ends up calling it something other than Mythos.
- Notably, Opus 4.6 had far higher ratio (nearly 12:1) than earlier models (2024 models typically had 3-5:1) Will this trend continue or reverse? Is reliability improving over time?
- Mythos 50% time horizon: https://manifold.markets/jim/claude-mythos-metr-50-time-horizon Will any model exceed a 3 hr 80% time horizon in 2026: https://manifold.markets/DaftPunkRock/acx-2026-will-an-ai-model-reach-a-3
- [image]Left bounds inclusive, right bounds exclusive.
- [link preview]Update 2026-06-09 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): This market will resolve based on Claude Fable 5's 50%/80% horizon ratio if METR releases that evaluation.
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Ratio of Claude Mythos METR 50% to 80% time horizon?
- Manifold Markets prices 5-7.5 at 89% as of July 25, 2026.
- When does Ratio of Claude Mythos METR 50% to 80% time horizon resolve?
- Ratio of Claude Mythos METR 50% to 80% time horizon is scheduled to resolve on July 24, 2026.
- How is Ratio of Claude Mythos METR 50% to 80% time horizon settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to the RATIO of the highest 50% time horizon, to the highest 80% time horizon, as reported by METR, for the first Claude Mythos model to appear on METR's graph.
