Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningStale data
Data as of Jul 10, 2026, 2:26 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-2
Current community forecastStatue of Charlie Kirk erected in the capitol 21.7%Leader of 63 outcomes
Forecasters
246
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 16 days ago
StaleSep 11, 25, 7:17 PMSep 11, 26, 7:13 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Statue of Charlie Kirk erected in the capitol22%
Volume trend
$12Jul 83d of dataJul 10
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Feel free to add your own, but egregiously irrelevant answers will be N/Aed.
- Try to keep it to things that can be connected to this event! I'll avoid betting in this market on anything where there could be ambiguity.
- Update 2025-09-11 (PST) (Creator summary of creator comment): - For the answer "Another political assassination (either side)": There must be some proven link - inspiration, direct influence, etc - between the Kirk assassination and anything that would give this a YES resolution.
- Update 2025-09-16 (PST) (Creator summary of creator comment): - For the answer "Any left-wing group is legally designated as a 'terrorist organization'": A state or local designation doesn't count for this - it has to be federal (even if it's unconstitutional or otherwise goes through the improper channels, such as an executive order).