Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNone of these listed before Dec 31st 2026 94.6%Leader of 8 outcomes
Forecasters
5
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+1.1 pts
Market data
Updated 3 hours ago
StaleDec 8, 25, 4:26 PM UTCDec 8, 26, 4:21 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will a publicly traded asteroid‑mining company exist by EOY 2050?
Manifold MarketsWill the Swedish mining company LKAB be privatised by 2035?
Manifold MarketsWill Argentina default before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Television Broadcasts Limited (TVB) Default on Any of Its Debts and or Go Bankrupt on or Before 2028?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketRules
Which of these companies will be the first to announce a formal event constituting default (a formal restructuring process under Chapter 11 of the U.S. Bankruptcy Code (or equivalent bankruptcy/restructuring filing in its primary jurisdiction) OR has entered technical default on its debt obligations (missed interest/principal payment, covenant breach triggering acceleration, or cross-default) as publicly announced by the company or its creditors