Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 50%
Forecasters
6
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 7 hours ago
StaleSep 7, 26, 2:36 PM UTCDec 31, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will we observe a supernova in the Milky Way Galaxy before 2050?
Manifold MarketsBlack hole spin-flip a cause of X-shaped radio galaxy?
Manifold MarketsWill the Milky Way collide with the Andromeda galaxy?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
PolymarketWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
KalshiLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
PolymarketRules
The current record is MoM-z14, a galaxy at redshift z=14.44.
- Its light traveled 13.5 billion years to reach us, and is now 33.8 billion light years away (space expands)
- It appears as it was 280 million years after the big bang
- Resolves YES if a galaxy with a spectroscopic redshift above 14.44 is reported before Jan 1, 2028.
- Resolution follows the List of the most distant astronomical objects - Wikipedia - confirmed objects section.
- If that entry shows z>14.44 and cites a published paper or preprint, this resolves YES.
Open markets
SpacePOLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic+1.0pt89%
- OpenAI-1.8pt9%
- Google2%
+18 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.7M
- 24h Vol
- $121.9K
LIMITLESSSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- No56.5%
- Yes43.5%
- Total Vol
- $53.1K
- 24h Vol
- $53.1K
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+0.5pt59.4%
- SpaceX-4.0pt38.5%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2.1%
+9 more outcomes
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028-2.0pt63%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-1.0pt51%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
+8 more outcomes
KALSHIHow many launches will SpaceX have in September?
- Above 8-6.0pt84%
- Above 9-21.0pt52%
- Above 10-16.0pt19%
+8 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETWill the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by which date?
- 2027-0.5pt67%
- June 30, 2027-0.5pt53%
- 2026+1.3pt6%
- Which company has the best AI model end of October?
- Third-best AI Lab end of September?
- Which company has the best AI Agent end of September?
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by which date?
- Will a new interstellar visitor be confirmed before 2027?
- Third-best AI Lab end of October?
- AI data center in space by which date?
- Which company has #1 AI model end of September? (Style Control On)
- Highest Grok score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for New most-distant galaxy (z>14.4) by EOY 2027?
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 50% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does New most-distant galaxy (z>14.4) by EOY 2027 resolve?
- New most-distant galaxy (z>14.4) by EOY 2027 is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2027.
- How is New most-distant galaxy (z>14.4) by EOY 2027 settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: The current record is MoM-z14, a galaxy at redshift z=14.44.