Kalshi offers at least one sports prediction contract in January 2027
RegulationOne-OffCommodities3moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 85.7%
Forecasters
4
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 15 hours ago
StaleOct 1, 25, 7:00 PM UTCJan 31, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Manifold MarketsRules
This market predicts whether Kalshi will offer any sports prediction contracts (such as team championships, game outcomes, etc.) during January 2027.
- Kalshi began offering sports contracts in January 2025 after self-certifying them with the CFTC.
- Since then, they've faced legal challenges from multiple states, with mixed results in court.
- Some federal courts have ruled that the Commodity Exchange Act preempts state gambling laws (Nevada, New Jersey), while others have ruled in favor of state regulation (Maryland).
- The market will resolve YES if Kalshi offers at least one sports-related prediction contract (defined as a prediction on a sports team to win or lose a sporting event) at any point during January 2027.
- It will resolve NO if Kalshi offers zero sports-related prediction contracts during that month.
