In 2030, will more than 30 million people in the US aged 18+ have tried ecstasy (MDMA/molly) in their lifetimes?
One-OffHealth & Medicine4yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 58.1%
Forecasters
14
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 20 hours ago
StaleFeb 1, 23, 6:56 AM UTCDec 31, 30, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
The National Survey on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH) surveys the number of people who have ever used ecstasy, also known as MDMA or Molly.
- Will the NSDUH figure for 2030, when released, be above 30 million?
- The market resolves YES if the NSDUH number of US adults (18+) in 2030 who have ever used ecstasy, as reported by the National Survey on Drug Use and Health for that year, is more than 30 million.
- If the NSDUH does not report figures, closest available government source will be used.
- Usage stats:
- 2019: 19,872,000
