Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Yes 96.7%
Forecasters
9
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleFeb 3, 23, 4:42 AM UTCJan 1, 01, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
When will Isaac King's "Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory?" market resolve?
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Manifold MarketsBurger King Foot Traffic in September
Kalshi$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
PolymarketLargest Company end of September?
PolymarketRules
Resolves YES if:
- I find out that @IsaacKing is dead or incapacitated for at least a year AND
- In the year following his incapacitation or death, at least 3 of his markets, or 50% of his markets that closed in that yearlong period (whichever is fewer), are resolved
- Resolves NO if I find out that Isaac is dead/incapacitated but the second YES condition isn't met in the year following his death/incapacitation.
- It doesn't matter who resolves the markets; it could be Isaac's partner, Manifold employees, a community resolution consensus, a computer program, or anything else.
Open markets
Business & CorporatePOLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M96%
- $25M95%
- $50M85%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $190.5K
- 24h Vol
- $190.5K
POLYMARKETLargest Company end of September?
- NVIDIA+0.5pt96%
- Apple-0.1pt3%
- Alphabet+0.2pt1%
+6 more outcomes
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
- 40-64+8.0pt56.4%
- 65-89+13.0pt33.7%
- 90-114+2.1pt5.9%
+7 more outcomes
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 8 - September 15, 2026?
- 180-19918.8%
- 200-219-1.0pt17.8%
- 160-17913.9%
+23 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBoeing commercial airplane deliveries in 2026
- Above 56095%
- Above 580-1.0pt90%
- Above 60086%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $211.6K
- 24h Vol
- $45.2K
KALSHICalifornia FAIR Plan policies in force on September 30, 2026
- Above 680,000+4.0pt98%
- Above 690,00094%
- Above 710,000-1.0pt28%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $70.2K
- Elon Musk # of tweets in September 2026?
- Largest Company end of December 2026?
- Variational FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Taco Bell same-store sales growth in Q3
- Ford total vehicles US sales in Q3
- Ford US vehicle sales volume in 2026
- Elon Musk # tweets September 11 - September 18, 2026?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Chewy active customers in Q2
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for If Isaac King dies or is incapacitated, will his markets be resolved??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 97% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does If Isaac King dies or is incapacitated, will his markets be resolved? resolve?
- If Isaac King dies or is incapacitated, will his markets be resolved? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2101.
- How is If Isaac King dies or is incapacitated, will his markets be resolved? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves YES if: