Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 5:50 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecast
Yes 96.7%
Yes 96.7%Forecasters
9
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 25 minutes ago
Feb 3, 23, 4:42 AM UTCJan 1, 01, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
Resolves YES if:
- I find out that @IsaacKing is dead or incapacitated for at least a year AND
- In the year following his incapacitation or death, at least 3 of his markets, or 50% of his markets that closed in that yearlong period (whichever is fewer), are resolved
- Resolves NO if I find out that Isaac is dead/incapacitated but the second YES condition isn't met in the year following his death/incapacitation.
- It doesn't matter who resolves the markets; it could be Isaac's partner, Manifold employees, a community resolution consensus, a computer program, or anything else.
