If abiogenetically distinct alien life is discovered in the solar system before 2070, where will it be first discovered?
SpaceOne-Off
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecast
Europa 30.4%Leader of 15 outcomes
Europa 30.4%Forecasters
18
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 5 hours ago
StaleDec 30, 23, 8:52 PM UTCJan 1, 70, 9:59 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
As specified above, the currently living or extinct extraterrestrial organisms must be the result of a separate abiogenesis, i.e must not share a common origin with currently known terrestrial lifeforms like humans, for instance.
- So in the case of a shadow biosphere being discovered on Earth prior to 2070 the question resolves as Other.
- Conditional to such life being found, we ask where the organisms live or lived under natural conditions.
- This question will resolve as Yes for the option above which is the first place known to meet the criteria.
- All other options will resolve as No. If no such discovery of extraterrestrial life has occurred before January 1, 2070, it resolves as N/A. The location will be assessed by scientific consensus.
