What are the current odds for Faster S&P 500 Crash than the Dotcom Bubble before 2030??

Manifold Markets prices No at 51.9% as of October 30, 2026.

Faster S&P 500 Crash than the Dotcom Bubble before 2030?

EquitiesOne-Off3y

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibrated

Current community forecast

No 51.9%

Forecasters

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 23 minutes ago

Aug 7, 26, 4:07 AM UTCDec 31, 29, 11:59 PM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Rules

The S&P 500 dropped 25.3% in one year from its peak of 1518 in August 2000 to 1134 in August 2001.

Resolves yes if the S&P drops 25.4% or more over a period of a year or less before 2030.
Only closing prices count.