Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 51%
Forecasters
6
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 7 hours ago
StaleAug 7, 26, 4:07 AM UTCDec 31, 29, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the US Unemployment Rate Exceed Dotcom Bubble Levels before 2030?
Manifold MarketsUs market crash in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill AI cause a financial crash within a decade? (By Oct 2032)
Manifold MarketsAI bubble burst by which date?
PolymarketWhich bubble bursts first?
MyriadLargest Company end of December 2026?
PolymarketRules
The S&P 500 dropped 25.3% in one year from its peak of 1518 in August 2000 to 1134 in August 2001.
- Resolves yes if the S&P drops 25.4% or more over a period of a year or less before 2030.
- Only closing prices count.
Open markets
EquitiesPOLYMARKETLargest Company end of December 2026?
- NVIDIA78.2%
- Apple+0.1pt13.9%
- Alphabet6.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $6.9M
- 24h Vol
- $122.2K
KALSHIS&P close price end of 2026?
- 7,800 to 7,999.9917%
- 8,000 to 8,199.9915.1%
- 7,600 to 7,799.9911.3%
+24 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $6.5M
- 24h Vol
- $92.9K
KALSHIBoeing commercial airplane deliveries in 2026
- Above 56095%
- Above 580-1.0pt90%
- Above 60086%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $215.9K
- 24h Vol
- $39.2K
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+0.5pt58.8%
- SpaceX-3.5pt39.2%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2.1%
+9 more outcomes
KALSHINasdaq-100 close price end of 2026?
- 33,000.01 or above+4.0pt16.5%
- 30,000 to 30,499.99+1.0pt7.2%
- 30,500 to 30,999.99-2.0pt6.2%
+27 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWhat will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit Week of September 7 2026?
- ↓ $182+8.9pt100%
- ↓ $180+26.9pt100%
- ↓ $178+46.0pt100%
+17 more outcomes
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- STRC hits $100 by…
- How high will the Nikkei 225 get in 2026?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit in September 2026?
- What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit Week of September 7 2026?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap (Middle Brackets)
- Will the S&P finish positive this year?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Faster S&P 500 Crash than the Dotcom Bubble before 2030??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 51% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Faster S&P 500 Crash than the Dotcom Bubble before 2030? resolve?
- Faster S&P 500 Crash than the Dotcom Bubble before 2030? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2029.
- How is Faster S&P 500 Crash than the Dotcom Bubble before 2030? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: The S&P 500 dropped 25.3% in one year from its peak of 1518 in August 2000 to 1134 in August 2001.