Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 53.4%
Forecasters
26
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 45 minutes ago
LaggingAug 22, 26, 7:19 PM UTCDec 25, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Coca-Cola Point of Sale Growth in September
KalshiWill Coca Cola Stop using AI to generate their Christmas Commercial before 2030?
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KalshiWill an AI-generated song reach #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 before 2027?
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Manifold MarketsTop AI model in September?
KalshiRules
Resolves yes if over 50% of the pixels in Coca-Cola's most widely broadcast Christmas Commercial are generated by an AI model.
- Update 2026-08-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution will be determined by:
- Official reporting or company statements
- Subjective judgment of the creator and others regarding the commercial's appearance, if no official sources are available
- Update 2026-08-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): * If the determination feels close, the creator will err on the side of resolving YES.
Open markets
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+60.0pt71%
- claude-opus-5-max+1.0pt7%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $154.3K
- 24h Vol
- $116.6K
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+4.8pt60.8%
- ChatGPT+0.5pt25.5%
- Grok-3.4pt5.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.5M
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+1.0pt86%
- November 30,84%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+22.0pt62.2%
- 2027+11.0pt28.6%
- 2026+4.5pt9.2%
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+5.0pt80.4%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt12.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $374.6K
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-1.0pt66%
- 1490+-3.0pt51%
- 1500+-1.0pt30%
+2 more outcomes
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Coca-Cola's 2026 Christmas Commercial Substantially AI Generated??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 53% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Coca-Cola's 2026 Christmas Commercial Substantially AI Generated? resolve?
- Coca-Cola's 2026 Christmas Commercial Substantially AI Generated? is scheduled to resolve on December 25, 2026.
- How is Coca-Cola's 2026 Christmas Commercial Substantially AI Generated? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves yes if over 50% of the pixels in Coca-Cola's most widely broadcast Christmas Commercial are generated by an AI model.