What are the current odds for [Carlini questions] US or China has created a public AI "Manhattan Project"?

Manifold Markets prices By 2030 at 76.7% as of October 28, 2026.

[Carlini questions] US or China has created a public AI "Manhattan Project"

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Current community forecast

By 2030 76.7%

Leader of 5 outcomes

Forecasters

Question type

multiple choice

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

7d Change

0.0 pts

Market data

Updated 33 minutes ago

Mar 24, 25, 1:21 AM UTCJan 1, 31, 11:59 PM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Rules

Resolves yes if US or China has created a public AI "Manhattan Project" to pursue AI, AGI, AI Safety, or other AI-related goals.

Resolution Criteria:
By "Manhattan Project" I mean a large government investment into a single project specifically aimed at AI.
It need not be secret.
I would count any 10+ billion dollar investment (or equivalent).
The project must be a single project, not a collection of small grants to various labs.