By 2040 will we use Simulated Humans in Clinical Trials to accelerate drug development & approvals as Kurzweil Predicts?
Health & MedicineOne-Off13yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 66.8%
Forecasters
20
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 8 hours ago
StaleMar 8, 24, 9:38 AM UTCJan 1, 40, 12:59 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
Ray Kurzweil recently predicted that we will use simulated humans to accelerate clinical trials and cure all major diseases by 2029 (full quote below)
- by using simulated humans Kurzweil believes we can greatly speed up both drug development & approvals
- I've modified his prediction by extending it to 2040 as a margin of error & excluded his mention of curing all major diseases.
- Resolution Criteria
- Use of Simulated Humans in the majority of Clinical trials by 2040
- The use of these simulated humans must greatly accelerate the time it takes for a drug to be approved
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for By 2040 will we use Simulated Humans in Clinical Trials to accelerate drug development & approvals as Kurzweil Predicts??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 66.8% as of September 24, 2026.
- When does By 2040 will we use Simulated Humans in Clinical Trials to accelerate drug development & approvals as Kurzweil Predicts? resolve?
- By 2040 will we use Simulated Humans in Clinical Trials to accelerate drug development & approvals as Kurzweil Predicts? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2040.
- How is By 2040 will we use Simulated Humans in Clinical Trials to accelerate drug development & approvals as Kurzweil Predicts? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Ray Kurzweil recently predicted that we will use simulated humans to accelerate clinical trials and cure all major diseases by 2029 (full quote below)
