Before 2030, will an AI system be able to solve compositional problems of arbitrary depth?

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for Before 2030, will an AI system be able to solve compositional problems of arbitrary depth??

Manifold Markets prices No at 53.1% as of November 3, 2026.

When does Before 2030, will an AI system be able to solve compositional problems of arbitrary depth? resolve?

Before 2030, will an AI system be able to solve compositional problems of arbitrary depth? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2029.

How is Before 2030, will an AI system be able to solve compositional problems of arbitrary depth? settled?

Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Given a problem that requires repeated application of specific rules (such as multiplying two large numbers or solving towers of Hanoi), will any AI system be able to generalize to arbitrarily large compositional depth? A new paper by Apple shows that they cannot currently do this.

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KALSHI

Best AI at the end of 2026?

• Gemini+5.3pt53.2%
• Claude-11.4pt27.8%
• ChatGPT-1.5pt5.5%

+5 more outcomes

Total Vol

$16.8M

24h Vol

$392.3K

POLYMARKET

Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?

• SpaceX+8.5pt69.8%
• Anthropic-14.1pt30.2%
• ByteDance0%

+9 more outcomes

POLYMARKET

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap

• $1.5–$1.75T+9.3pt27.9%
• $1.75–$2.0T-8.0pt23.1%
• $2.0–$2.25T-2.6pt16.4%

+7 more outcomes

POLYMARKET

Which company has best AI model end of 2026?

• Google+3.0pt56%
• Anthropic-10.5pt26%
• OpenAI+0.1pt5%

+12 more outcomes

POLYMARKET

Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?

• ↑$1.5T+3.5pt94%
• ↑$1.75T-1.5pt81%
• ↑$2.0T-2.0pt64%

+11 more outcomes

POLYMARKET

Anthropic IPO by which date?

• December 31,-1.5pt92%
• December 15,-1.0pt91%
• November 30,+2.0pt85%

+15 more outcomes

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