Current community forecast
No 58%
Forecasters
13
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 8 hours ago
StaleJul 20, 24, 9:36 AM UTCJan 2, 28, 7:59 AM UTC
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiRules
This question aims to test whether AI systems will approach the breadth and maturity of the professional mathematical community before 2028.
- Currently, the On-line Encyclopedia of Integer Sequences (OEIS) collects several dozen new sequences per day, meaning up to thousands of new sequences can be collected for AI evals.
- In mid-2027, I will create or sponsor efforts (or defer to sufficiently high-quality outside evaluations or benchmarks) to determine how well frontier AI systems can suggest reasonable and mathematically sound explanations for new OEIS sequences (when given terms from the sequence, and possibly hints about the domain of the intended explanation).
- This question resolves YES if the best AI systems match or outperform a baseline on this task involving groups of professional human mathematicians working together across several hours, with access to outside references.
- Some more details on judging:
- I will generally accept outcomes where AI systems mostly give their answers from a subset of mathematics (combinatorics, number theory, algebra, etc), as long as they are able to provide answers judged as acceptably important, relevant, and elegant, in consultation with the mathematical community.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Before 2028, will AI systems outperform mathematicians at suggesting reasonable explanations for new OEIS sequences??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 58% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Before 2028, will AI systems outperform mathematicians at suggesting reasonable explanations for new OEIS sequences? resolve?
- Before 2028, will AI systems outperform mathematicians at suggesting reasonable explanations for new OEIS sequences? is scheduled to resolve on January 2, 2028.
- How is Before 2028, will AI systems outperform mathematicians at suggesting reasonable explanations for new OEIS sequences? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This question aims to test whether AI systems will approach the breadth and maturity of the professional mathematical community before 2028.