Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 83.5%
Forecasters
10
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 11 hours ago
StaleAug 23, 23, 4:44 AM UTCDec 31, 30, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will at least 3 American cities reach a population of 1 million for the first time before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill a US city ban meat sales before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill the federal government ban the sale or making of cultured meat throughout US by the end of 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill a European country ban selling meat by 2100?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
KalshiIndiana enacts data center moratorium by which date?
PolymarketRules
This market is part of a series of markets inspired by a scroll through Rumble.com.
- They will be resolved to PROB based on the spirit of the hypothesis (somewhat vibes-based), using evidence posted in comments and own research if necessary.
- I will not be trading in those markets.
- If you want to discuss this series of markets in general there is a Discord thread.