Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 51%
Forecasters
4
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 22 minutes ago
Nov 3, 25, 6:20 PM UTCDec 31, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
Update 2025-11-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Freehand animation refers to freehand movement achieved when each frame is hand drawn with no interpolation/tweening tools used.
- Key characteristic: Smear frames - quick movements that produce distortions that are nonsensical when looked at individually, but make sense in quick sequence.
- Update 2025-11-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution method: 8 prompts will be given to the video generative model (examples include prompts about dancers, artists sketching, boxers, skateboarders, hand movements).
- Movements will be sampled from actual artists of varying skill levels (beginner to professional) for comparison.
- A blind competition between real vs generative works will be conducted to determine resolution.
