KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: At least 1.1M bpd (75%)
Resolved: Oct 13, 2026, 1:23 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 13, 2026, 1:16 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
At least 800K bpd99%
At least 900K bpd99%
At least 1.0M bpd94%
At least 1.2M bpd16%
At least 1.3M bpd2%
At least 1.5M bpd1%
At least 1.1M bpd75%
At least 800K bpdLost
At least 900K bpdLost
At least 1.0M bpdLost
At least 1.1M bpdWon
At least 1.2M bpdLost
At least 1.3M bpdLost
At least 1.5M bpdLost
At least 1.4M bpdLost
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ForecastExRules
Archived event-level rules. The exact terms for each outcome are no longer available.
If Venezuela’s average daily crude oil production for September is the named outcome, as reported in the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report published after the reference month, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:OPEC
- The Underlying is Venezuela’s crude oil production based on secondary sources, as shown in the OPEC crude oil production table.
- OPEC reports this figure in thousand barrels per day (tb/d); for purposes of this market, 800K bpd equals 800 tb/d and 1.0M bpd equals 1,000 tb/d.
- Venezuela’s direct-communication figure and any natural gas liquids or non-conventional liquids figures will not be used.
- Later revisions, corrections, or subsequent reports will not be considered.