What will JD Vance say during his Midterm Rally in Texas?
DogecoinOne-OffMemecoinPoliticsUS PoliticsElection2026 US Midterms
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Current implied probability
Democrat 96%Leader of 28 outcomes
Democrat 96%Market quality
48 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$22.9K
Open interest
$16.1K
Medium open interestSpread
21.0 pt
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 8 minutes ago
Sep 30, 26, 2:30 PM UTCOct 14, 26, 2:00 PM UTC
Trends
Democrat96%
Tax on Tips / Tax on Overtime91%
Election90%
Talarico85%
Healthcare83%
Biden83%
American Dream82%
Border80%
Illegal Alien80%
Manufacture / Manufacturing78%
Fraud78%
ICE76%
Social Security73%
Afford / Affordable / Affordability65%
Oil / Gas / Gasoline57%
2028 / Campaign50%
Working Class / Middle Class48%
China / Chinese46%
Inflation44%
AI / Artificial Intelligence40%
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PolymarketRules
This outcome's exact rule is not available.
Settles via:ABCFox NewsMSNBCThe Wall Street JournalSemaforThe InformationCBSAxiosCNNReutersThe New York TimesThe Washington Postthe Associated PressPolitico
- How this is resolved Video of the Midterm Rally in Harlingen, Texas originally scheduled for September 30, 2026 using the live broadcast or stream. If a consensus by Kalshi employees cannot be reached using video, internal & external (official) transcripts of the Midterm Rally in Harlingen, Texas originally scheduled for September 30, 2026 will be used. Payout Criteria The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word. Plural nouns occurring within proper nouns and noun phrases (e.g. names, titles, etc). JD Vance speaking in an official capacity. For phrases with slashes like "Doge/Dogecoin," either word satisfies the criterion. Doesn't count for payout Grammatical/tense inflections are otherwise not included. Presence alone during a livestream is not sufficient for the market to qualify (e.g., inaudible private conversations on camera, unofficial statements picked up on a hot mic). Except as otherwise specified, previously aired content, archival footage, and recordings captured at times, places, or events wholly separate from the featured address. Payout for cancellations and delays If an event is definitively cancelled or the event fails to qualify under the Payout Criterion, or any other circumstance prevents normal resolution, then the market for "Event does not qualify" resolves to Yes and all other markets will resolve to No. If the event is postponed, and such a postponement is announced by the end of the following calendar day to be rescheduled to a time within 14 calendar days, the markets shall remain open.
Rules for each outcome
- Democrat
- If JD Vance says Democrat as part of Midterm Rally in Harlingen, Texas originally scheduled for September 30, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes.
- Tax on Tips / Tax on Overtime
- If JD Vance says Tax on Tips / Tax on Overtime as part of Midterm Rally in Harlingen, Texas originally scheduled for September 30, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes.
- Election
- If JD Vance says Election as part of Midterm Rally in Harlingen, Texas originally scheduled for September 30, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes.
- Talarico
- If JD Vance says Talarico as part of Midterm Rally in Harlingen, Texas originally scheduled for September 30, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes.
- Healthcare
- If JD Vance says Healthcare as part of Midterm Rally in Harlingen, Texas originally scheduled for September 30, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes.
- Biden
- If JD Vance says Biden as part of Midterm Rally in Harlingen, Texas originally scheduled for September 30, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes.
- American Dream
- If JD Vance says American Dream as part of Midterm Rally in Harlingen, Texas originally scheduled for September 30, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes.
- Border
- If JD Vance says Border as part of Midterm Rally in Harlingen, Texas originally scheduled for September 30, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes.
- Illegal Alien
- If JD Vance says Illegal Alien as part of Midterm Rally in Harlingen, Texas originally scheduled for September 30, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes.
- Manufacture / Manufacturing
- If JD Vance says Manufacture / Manufacturing as part of Midterm Rally in Harlingen, Texas originally scheduled for September 30, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes.
- Fraud
- If JD Vance says Fraud as part of Midterm Rally in Harlingen, Texas originally scheduled for September 30, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes.
- ICE
- If JD Vance says ICE as part of Midterm Rally in Harlingen, Texas originally scheduled for September 30, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes.
- Social Security
- If JD Vance says Social Security as part of Midterm Rally in Harlingen, Texas originally scheduled for September 30, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes.
- Afford / Affordable / Affordability
- If JD Vance says Afford / Affordable / Affordability as part of Midterm Rally in Harlingen, Texas originally scheduled for September 30, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes.
- Oil / Gas / Gasoline
- If JD Vance says Oil / Gas / Gasoline as part of Midterm Rally in Harlingen, Texas originally scheduled for September 30, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes.
- 2028 / Campaign
- If JD Vance says 2028 / Campaign as part of Midterm Rally in Harlingen, Texas originally scheduled for September 30, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes.
- Working Class / Middle Class
- If JD Vance says Working Class / Middle Class as part of Midterm Rally in Harlingen, Texas originally scheduled for September 30, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes.
- China / Chinese
- If JD Vance says China / Chinese as part of Midterm Rally in Harlingen, Texas originally scheduled for September 30, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes.
- Inflation
- If JD Vance says Inflation as part of Midterm Rally in Harlingen, Texas originally scheduled for September 30, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes.
- AI / Artificial Intelligence
- If JD Vance says AI / Artificial Intelligence as part of Midterm Rally in Harlingen, Texas originally scheduled for September 30, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes.
- America First
- If JD Vance says America First as part of Midterm Rally in Harlingen, Texas originally scheduled for September 30, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes.
- Radical Left
- If JD Vance says Radical Left as part of Midterm Rally in Harlingen, Texas originally scheduled for September 30, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes.
- ID / Identification
- If JD Vance says ID / Identification as part of Midterm Rally in Harlingen, Texas originally scheduled for September 30, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes.
- Economy / Economic
- If JD Vance says Economy / Economic as part of Midterm Rally in Harlingen, Texas originally scheduled for September 30, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes.
- Fake News
- If JD Vance says Fake News as part of Midterm Rally in Harlingen, Texas originally scheduled for September 30, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes.
- Tariff
- If JD Vance says Tariff as part of Midterm Rally in Harlingen, Texas originally scheduled for September 30, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes.
- Made in America / American Made
- If JD Vance says Made in America / American Made as part of Midterm Rally in Harlingen, Texas originally scheduled for September 30, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes.
- Event does not qualify
- If a qualifying event does not occur , then the market resolves to Yes.