KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
4.36% or above 83%Leader of 15 outcomes
Market quality
28 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$1.6K
Low liquiditySpread
14.0 pt
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 10 minutes ago
Sep 1, 26, 7:31 PM UTCSep 30, 26, 7:30 PM UTC
Trends
0%
0%
0%
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0%
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Rules
If the par yield for the 5Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.35% on Sep 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:U.S. Department of the Treasury
- The market will expire at the sooner of the first 7:00 PM ET following the data release for Sep 30, 2026, or one week following Sep 30, 2026.
- If the par yield for the 5Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.37% on Sep 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the par yield for the 5Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.39% on Sep 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the par yield for the 5Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.41% on Sep 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the par yield for the 5Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.43% on Sep 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Open markets
Bonds & Treasuries
POLYMARKETHow high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
- 4.5%+11.2pt100%
- 4.6%+4.9pt100%
- 4.8%+8.1pt100%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $322.6K
- 24h Vol
- $12.7K
POLYMARKETHow high will 10-year Treasury yield go in September?
- 4.82%-31.5pt45%
- 4.85%-26.5pt40%
- 4.88%-26.0pt31%
+6 more outcomes
POLYMARKETHow low will 10-year Treasury yield get in September?
- Below 4.76%+3.0pt77%
- Below 4.73%+6.5pt67%
- Below 4.70%+1.0pt51%
+6 more outcomes
POLYMARKETHow low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
- 4.0%+0.3pt100%
- 3.9%-1.6pt8%
- 3.5%-2.8pt5%
+6 more outcomes
KALSHISOFR for September 8, 2026
- 3.66% or Above32.7%
- Exactly 3.64%24%
- Exactly 3.65%23.1%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $3.8K
- 24h Vol
- $3.8K
KALSHI2Y US Treasury yield on Sep 11, 2026?
- 4.23% or above99%
- 4.25% or above+1.0pt93%
- 4.21% or above-11.0pt86%
+12 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $3.1K
- 2Y US Treasury yield on Sep 9, 2026?
- 30Y US Treasury yield on Sep 9, 2026?
- 30Y US Treasury yield on Sep 11, 2026?
- 10Y US Treasury yield on Sep 9, 2026?
- US defaults on debt by 2027?
- How low will 30-year Treasury yield get in September?
- 5Y US Treasury yield on Sep 9, 2026?
- 10Y US Treasury yield on Sep 11, 2026?
- Bank of Canada rate on December 31, 2026
- How high will 5-year Treasury yield go in September?
- UST par yield curve (2Y) at end of Q3 2026
- 30Y US Treasury yield on Sep 30, 2026?
Related Cryptos
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for 5Y US Treasury yield on Sep 30, 2026??
- Kalshi prices 4.36% or above at 83% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does 5Y US Treasury yield on Sep 30, 2026? resolve?
- 5Y US Treasury yield on Sep 30, 2026? is scheduled to resolve on September 30, 2026.
- How is 5Y US Treasury yield on Sep 30, 2026? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the par yield for the 5Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.35% on Sep 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.