KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: 4.36% or above (99%)
Resolved: Sep 30, 2026, 10:04 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Winning Outcome
4.36% or above
At 7 days out
—
At 24 hours out
—
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Sep 30, 2026, 8:51 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
4.9% or above90%
5.2% or above0%
4.72% or above85%
4.92% or above96%
4.84% or above86%
4.88% or above98%
4.94% or above95%
4.82% or above84%
4.7% or above85%
4.74% or above75%
4.96% or above75%
5.04% or above30%
4.98% or above99%
5.12% or above2%
4.78% or above99%
4.8% or above99%
5.06% or aboveLost
4.76% or aboveLost
4.82% or aboveLost
4.84% or aboveLost
4.86% or aboveLost
4.88% or aboveLost
4.92% or aboveLost
4.94% or aboveLost
4.98% or aboveLost
5% or aboveLost
5.02% or aboveLost
4.36% or aboveWon
4.38% or aboveLost
4.54% or aboveLost
4.62% or aboveLost
4.64% or aboveLost
4.66% or aboveLost
4.68% or aboveLost
4.7% or aboveLost
4.72% or aboveLost
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Rules
Archived event-level rules. The exact terms for each outcome are no longer available.
If the par yield for the 5Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.35% on Sep 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:U.S. Department of the Treasury
- The market will expire at the sooner of the first 7:00 PM ET following the data release for Sep 30, 2026, or one week following Sep 30, 2026.
- If the par yield for the 5Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.37% on Sep 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the par yield for the 5Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.39% on Sep 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the par yield for the 5Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.41% on Sep 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the par yield for the 5Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.43% on Sep 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
