KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
claude-fable-5.1-max 4%-75.0ptLeader of 6 outcomes
claude-fable-5.1-max 4%-75.0ptMarket quality
67 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$21.2K
Liquidity
$29.7K
High liquiditySpread
3.0 pt
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 7 minutes ago
Sep 22, 26, 7:30 PM UTCSep 28, 26, 2:00 PM UTC
Trends
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
If claude-fable-5.1-max is the top-ranked AI model on Sep 28, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)
- If two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win.
- If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win.
- If two models are still tied after that, the model that was released earlier will win.
- Important information: When checking the source for this market, check the 'Remove Style Control' toggle.
- If claude-opus-5-max is the top-ranked AI model on Sep 28, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.