KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market is closed and awaiting confirmed resolution.
Awaiting verified resolution
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Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 23, 2026, 11:51 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current implied probability
Exactly 3.88% 90%Leader of 7 outcomes
Exactly 3.88% 90%Market quality
31 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$17.8K
Open interest
$8K
Medium open interestSpread
24.0 pt
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 4 hours ago
StaleOct 22, 26, 12:00 PM UTCOct 23, 26, 11:59 AM UTC
Trends
Exactly 3.88%90%
Exactly 3.90%41%
Exactly 3.89%34%
Exactly 3.87%4%
3.91% or Above2%
3.85% or Below1%
Exactly 3.86%1%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
This outcome's exact rule is not available.
Settles via:Federal Reserve Bank of New York
- The Underlying is the initially reported SOFR for October 22, 2026 in the table named “Secured Overnight Financing Rate Data” in the column labeled “Rate (%)”. Later revisions will not be accounted for in determining the Expiration Value.
Rules for each outcome
- Exactly 3.88%
- If the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) for October 22, 2026 is exactly 3.88%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Exactly 3.90%
- If the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) for October 22, 2026 is exactly 3.90%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Exactly 3.89%
- If the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) for October 22, 2026 is exactly 3.89%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Exactly 3.87%
- If the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) for October 22, 2026 is exactly 3.87%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 3.91% or Above
- If the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) for October 22, 2026 is at least 3.91%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 3.85% or Below
- If the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) for October 22, 2026 is at most 3.85%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Exactly 3.86%
- If the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) for October 22, 2026 is exactly 3.86%, then the market resolves to Yes.