KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: Exactly 3.88% (25%)
Resolved: Oct 5, 2026, 1:17 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 5, 2026, 11:50 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
Exactly 3.89%18%
Exactly 3.87%20%
Exactly 3.88%25%
Exactly 3.86%1%
Exactly 3.88%Won
Exactly 3.87%Lost
Exactly 3.89%Lost
Exactly 3.90%Lost
Exactly 3.86%Lost
3.91% or AboveLost
3.85% or BelowLost
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KalshiRules
Archived event-level rules. The exact terms for each outcome are no longer available.
If the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) for October 2, 2026 is at most 3.85%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Federal Reserve Bank of New York
- The Underlying is the initially reported SOFR for October 2, 2026 in the table named “Secured Overnight Financing Rate Data” in the column labeled “Rate (%)”.
- Later revisions will not be accounted for in determining the Expiration Value.
- If the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) for October 2, 2026 is exactly 3.86%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) for October 2, 2026 is exactly 3.87%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) for October 2, 2026 is exactly 3.88%, then the market resolves to Yes.