KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
3.91% or Above 55.8%Leader of 7 outcomesVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
3.91% or Above 55.8%Market quality
46 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$12.1K
Open interest
$10.7K
Medium open interestSpread
14.0 pt
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 10 minutes ago
Sep 30, 26, 1:45 PM UTCOct 1, 26, 11:59 AM UTC
Trends
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
If the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) for September 30, 2026 is at least 3.91%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Federal Reserve Bank of New York
- The Underlying is the initially reported SOFR for September 30, 2026 in the table named “Secured Overnight Financing Rate Data” in the column labeled “Rate (%)”. Later revisions will not be accounted for in determining the Expiration Value.
Rules for each outcome
- 3.91% or Above
- If the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) for September 30, 2026 is at least 3.91%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Exactly 3.90%
- If the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) for September 30, 2026 is exactly 3.90%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Exactly 3.89%
- If the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) for September 30, 2026 is exactly 3.89%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Exactly 3.86%
- If the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) for September 30, 2026 is exactly 3.86%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Exactly 3.87%
- If the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) for September 30, 2026 is exactly 3.87%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 3.85% or Below
- If the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) for September 30, 2026 is at most 3.85%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Exactly 3.88%
- If the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) for September 30, 2026 is exactly 3.88%, then the market resolves to Yes.