KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
4.92% or above 37%Market line of 15 lines
4.92% or above 37%Market quality
39 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$250
Open interest
$200
Low open interestSpread
6.0 pt
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 23 minutes ago
Sep 30, 26, 7:30 PM UTCOct 1, 26, 7:30 PM UTC
Trends
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 1h (informational)
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
If the par yield for the 2Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.91% on Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:U.S. Department of the Treasury
- The market will expire at the sooner of the first 7:00 PM ET following the data release for Oct 1, 2026, or one week following Oct 1, 2026.
Rules for each outcome
- 4.76% or above
- If the par yield for the 2Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.75% on Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.78% or above
- If the par yield for the 2Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.77% on Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.82% or above
- If the par yield for the 2Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.81% on Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.92% or above
- If the par yield for the 2Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.91% on Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.94% or above
- If the par yield for the 2Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.93% on Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.96% or above
- If the par yield for the 2Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.95% on Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.98% or above
- If the par yield for the 2Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.97% on Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.8% or above
- If the par yield for the 2Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.79% on Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.84% or above
- If the par yield for the 2Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.83% on Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.86% or above
- If the par yield for the 2Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.85% on Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.88% or above
- If the par yield for the 2Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.87% on Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.9% or above
- If the par yield for the 2Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.89% on Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 5% or above
- If the par yield for the 2Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.99% on Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 5.02% or above
- If the par yield for the 2Y U.S. Treasury is above 5.01% on Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 5.04% or above
- If the par yield for the 2Y U.S. Treasury is above 5.03% on Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.