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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Regulation
  3. Will Trump announce a new trade deal in Jun 2026?
Will Trump announce a new trade deal in Jun 2026?

Will Trump announce a new trade deal in Jun 2026?

17.0% (24h)RegulationOne-OffUS PoliticsTrade PolicyPoliticsElection19d
KalshiKalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% fee
Current implied probability
Yes
Yes 20%-17.0%
Market quality

28 / 100

Low quality
24h Volume

$0.5

Liquidity

$0.8

Low liquidity
Bid / Ask

19.0% / 28.0%

Spread

47.4%

Wide spread
Market data

Updated 5 minutes ago

Jun 1, 26, 2:00 PMJul 1, 26, 3:59 AM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

Yes20%

Rules

If the President announces a new trade deal before Jul 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • For the purposes of this Contract, an announcement must satisfy ALL of the following criteria:
  • Made through official channels including White House press conferences, official White House statements, presidential speeches, official presidential social media accounts, or official presidential appearances Explicitly describes the arrangement as a "trade deal," "trade agreement," "trade memorandum," "trade pact," or uses substantially similar language indicating a formal trade arrangement Involves at least one foreign country, territory, or international trade bloc
  • Preliminary agreements, frameworks, or agreements in principle do count as long as they are presented as a new trade-related agreement.
  • It also includes modifications or re-negotiated versions of previous agreements.
  • New arrangements include, but are not limited to:

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Rules

If the President announces a new trade deal before Jul 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • For the purposes of this Contract, an announcement must satisfy ALL of the following criteria:
  • Made through official channels including White House press conferences, official White House statements, presidential speeches, official presidential social media accounts, or official presidential appearances Explicitly describes the arrangement as a "trade deal," "trade agreement," "trade memorandum," "trade pact," or uses substantially similar language indicating a formal trade arrangement Involves at least one foreign country, territory, or international trade bloc
  • Preliminary agreements, frameworks, or agreements in principle do count as long as they are presented as a new trade-related agreement.
  • It also includes modifications or re-negotiated versions of previous agreements.
  • New arrangements include, but are not limited to: