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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Trade Policy
  3. Will Trump create a tariff dividend by June 30?
Will Trump create a tariff dividend by June 30?

Will Trump create a tariff dividend by June 30?

0.3% (24h)One-OffTrade PolicyUS Politics18d
PolymarketPolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% fee
Current implied probability
Yes
Yes 3%
Market quality

40 / 100

Low quality
24h Volume

$0

Liquidity

$13.4K

Medium liquidity
Bid / Ask

2.0% / 3.5%

Spread

75.0%

Wide spread
7d Change

-1.3%

Market data

Updated 7 minutes ago

Dec 17, 25, 9:12 PMJun 30, 26, 12:00 AM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

Yes3%

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration formally creates (e.g., by signing federal legislation or performing executive action) a tariff dividend/rebate by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
  • Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
  • A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
  • The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Macro-Sensitive Assets

BitcoinBTC$62,652.06+2.46%EthereumETH$1,650.89+1.90%SolanaSOL$65.15+1.75%

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Active in these topics

DogecoinDOGE$0.085+1.87%XRPXRP$1.12+0.43%BNBBNB$595.25+1.81%CardanoADA$0.1662+3.29%HyperliquidHYPE$54.76-1.10%LitecoinLTC$42.70+0.86%

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Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration formally creates (e.g., by signing federal legislation or performing executive action) a tariff dividend/rebate by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
  • Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
  • A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
  • The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.