KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
S&P 500 Total Return Index 68.3%
Market quality
≤49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$9.7K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
66.0% / 69.0%
Spread
3.0 pt
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 11 minutes ago
May 19, 26, 12:00 AM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
If the named outcome performs above Gold for the period of 2026 by 0.001% then the market resolves to Yes.
- Percent return is calculated from the official open price of each asset on January 2, 2026 (the first published trading day of the calendar year) and the official closing price on December 31, 2026.
- For example, if the the named outcome opens at $5,800 on January 2, 2026 and at $6,380 on December 31, 2026, it will be concluded that the annual percentage return of the S&P 500 TR is +10.000%.
- If Gold performs above the named outcome for the period of 2026 by 0.001% then the market resolves to Yes.
Open markets
Equities
POLYMARKETLargest Company end of December 2026?
- NVIDIA78.2%
- Apple+0.1pt13.9%
- Alphabet6.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $6.9M
- 24h Vol
- $122.2K
KALSHIS&P close price end of 2026?
- 7,800 to 7,999.9917%
- 8,000 to 8,199.9915.1%
- 7,600 to 7,799.9911.3%
+24 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $6.5M
- 24h Vol
- $92.9K
KALSHIBoeing commercial airplane deliveries in 2026
- Above 56095%
- Above 580-1.0pt90%
- Above 60086%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $215.9K
- 24h Vol
- $39.2K
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+0.5pt58.8%
- SpaceX-3.5pt39.2%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2.1%
+9 more outcomes
KALSHINasdaq-100 close price end of 2026?
- 33,000.01 or above+4.0pt16.5%
- 30,000 to 30,499.99+1.0pt7.2%
- 30,500 to 30,999.99-2.0pt6.2%
+27 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWhat will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit Week of September 7 2026?
- ↓ $182+8.9pt100%
- ↓ $180+26.9pt100%
- ↓ $178+46.0pt100%
+17 more outcomes
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- STRC hits $100 by…
- How high will the Nikkei 225 get in 2026?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit in September 2026?
- What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit Week of September 7 2026?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap (Middle Brackets)
- Will the S&P finish positive this year?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Annual Return: S&P 500 Total Return Vs. Gold??
- Kalshi prices S&P 500 Total Return Index at 68% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Annual Return: S&P 500 Total Return Vs. Gold? resolve?
- Annual Return: S&P 500 Total Return Vs. Gold? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Annual Return: S&P 500 Total Return Vs. Gold? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the named outcome performs above Gold for the period of 2026 by 0.001% then the market resolves to Yes.