KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Gold 71.8%-14.0ptVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
Market quality
48 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$86.4
Liquidity
$5.5K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
25.0% / 32.0%
Spread
7.0 pt
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 6 minutes ago
May 29, 26, 1:00 AM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Annual Return: S&P 500 Total Return Vs. BTC?
KalshiAnnual Return: WTI vs. Brent?
KalshiAnnual Return: Gold vs. Silver
KalshiWill USA get more tourists from Spain or Australia in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Argentina adopt the US Dollar by 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill it become illegal to move >$50K/year out of the United States?
Manifold MarketsRules
If the named outcome performs above Gold during 2026 by 0.001% rounded to the nearest 3rd then the market resolves to Yes.
- Percent return is calculated from the official opening price of each asset on January 2, 2026 (the first published trading day of the calendar year) and the official closing price on December 31, 2026.
- For example, if the the named outcome (DXY) opens at 102 on January 2, 2026 and closes at 107 on December 31, 2026, it will be concluded that the annual percentage return of the the named outcome is +4.902%.
- If Gold performs above the named outcome during 2026 by 0.001% rounded to the nearest 3rd then the market resolves to Yes.
Open markets
Commodities
POLYMARKETWhat will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in September 2026?
- ↑ $90+35.5pt100%
- ↑ $85+5.7pt100%
- ↑ $95+14.9pt100%
+22 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2M
- 24h Vol
- $276.7K
KALSHIOil Price (WTI) on Sep 9, 2026?
- Above $91.49+13.0pt99%
- Above $89.99+5.0pt99%
- Above $88.99+7.0pt99%
+27 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIUS gas prices this week
- Above 4.1800+59.0pt99%
- Above 4.1400+32.0pt99%
- Above 4.2000+73.0pt99%
+18 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIWill the Clarity Act become law?
- Before Jan 1, 2028-14.0pt37%
- Before Oct 1, 2027-13.0pt36%
- Before Jul 1, 2027-9.0pt32%
+7 more outcomes
KALSHIBrent crude oil price on September 09, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?
- Above $9499%
- Above $96.5097%
- Above $9696%
+17 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $99.5K
- 24h Vol
- $99.4K
POLYMARKETCrude Oil all time high by which date?
- December 3111%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- May 31-0.4pt0%
+1 more outcomes
- How high will oil (WTI) get by Dec 31, 2026?
- Oil Price (WTI) on Sep 11, 2026?
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
- Crude Oil’s next move: Pump to $120 or Dump to $55?
- How high will peak electricity demand on the Texas ERCOT grid get in 2026?
- Copper price on September 09, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?
- What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit Week of September 7 2026?
- Brent crude oil price on September 30, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?
- Diesel prices this week
- Gas prices in the US in Sep 2026?
- What will Gold (XAUUSD) hit in September 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Annual Return: DXY vs. Gold?
- Kalshi prices Gold at 72% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Annual Return: DXY vs. Gold resolve?
- Annual Return: DXY vs. Gold is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Annual Return: DXY vs. Gold settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the named outcome performs above Gold during 2026 by 0.001% rounded to the nearest 3rd then the market resolves to Yes.