KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
No 94%
Market quality
≤49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$402
Low liquidityBid / Ask
5.0% / 6.0%
Spread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 5 minutes ago
Aug 19, 26, 10:00 PM UTCJan 1, 28, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
If the U.S. Department of the Treasury announces that the United States Federal Government failed to make a scheduled payment on a Treasury note, bond, or bill; or that one of the three major credit ratings agencies designate any United States debt in any form of default, before 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:U.S. Department of the Treasury
Open markets
Bonds & Treasuries
POLYMARKETHow low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
- 4.0%+0.3pt100%
- 3.8%+2.9pt8%
- 3.9%-1.3pt8%
+6 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $245.7K
- 24h Vol
- $8.6K
POLYMARKETHow high will 10-year Treasury yield go in September?
- 4.82%-29.0pt48%
- 4.85%-20.0pt47%
- 4.91%-12.5pt35%
+6 more outcomes
POLYMARKETHow high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
- 4.5%+11.2pt100%
- 4.6%+4.9pt100%
- 4.4%-1.5pt100%
+7 more outcomes
KALSHI10Y US Treasury yield on Sep 8, 2026?
- 4.66% or above99%
- 4.68% or above99%
- 4.7% or above99%
+12 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $5K
- 24h Vol
- $5K
KALSHI2Y US Treasury yield on Sep 8, 2026?
- 4.21% or above99%
- 4.23% or above99%
- 4.25% or above99%
+12 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $4.9K
- 24h Vol
- $4.9K
KALSHI7Y US Treasury yield on Sep 8, 2026?
- 4.57% or above99%
- 4.51% or above99%
- 4.53% or above99%
+12 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $4.4K
- 24h Vol
- $4.4K
- 30Y US Treasury yield on Sep 8, 2026?
- 5Y US Treasury yield on Sep 8, 2026?
- How low will 10-year Treasury yield get in September?
- 30Y US Treasury yield on Sep 11, 2026?
- US defaults on debt by 2027?
- How low will 30-year Treasury yield get in September?
- 2Y US Treasury yield on Sep 11, 2026?
- Bank of Canada rate on December 31, 2026
- How low will 5-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
- How high will 5-year Treasury yield go in September?
- Japan 10Y Bond Yield: End of 2026
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for US defaults before 2028??
- Kalshi prices No at 94% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does US defaults before 2028? resolve?
- US defaults before 2028? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2028.
- How is US defaults before 2028? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the U.S. Department of the Treasury announces that the United States Federal Government failed to make a scheduled payment on a Treasury note, bond, or bill; or that one of the three major credit ratings agencies designate any United States debt in any form of default, before 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.