KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: 5.14% or below (99%)
Resolved: Oct 1, 2026, 10:03 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 27, 2026, 1:07 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
5.14% or below76%
5.13% or below99%
5.12% or below99%
5.11% or below86%
5.1% or below48%
5.09% or below40%
5.08% or below99%
5.07% or below99%
5.06% or below80%
5.05% or below99%
5.04% or below99%
5.03% or below99%
5.02% or below99%
5.01% or below88%
5% or below0%
4.99% or below0%
4.98% or below84%
4.97% or below76%
4.96% or below41%
4.95% or below36%
4.94% or below34%
4.93% or below30%
4.92% or below28%
4.91% or below99%
4.9% or below97%
4.89% or below88%
4.88% or below59%
4.87% or below98%
4.86% or below9%
4.85% or below13%
4.84% or below15%
4.83% or below0%
4.82% or below0%
4.81% or below0%
4.8% or below0%
4.79% or below0%
4.78% or below0%
4.77% or below0%
4.76% or below7%
4.75% or below7%
5.14% or belowWon
5.13% or belowLost
5.12% or belowLost
5.08% or belowLost
5.07% or belowLost
5.05% or belowLost
5.04% or belowLost
5.03% or belowLost
5.02% or belowLost
4.91% or belowLost
4.87% or belowLost
4.9% or belowLost
5.01% or belowLost
4.89% or belowLost
5.11% or belowLost
4.98% or belowLost
5.06% or belowLost
4.97% or belowLost
4.88% or belowLost
5.1% or belowLost
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
How low will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Oct 30, 2026?
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Rules
Archived event-level rules. The exact terms for each outcome are no longer available.
If the daily published par yield for the 7-year U.S. Treasury is below 5.15% on any business day between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:U.S. Department of the Treasury
- How this is resolved This market covers the period between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026.
- Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 7-year generic constant-maturity tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered.
- Revisions to the Underlying made after Expiration will not be accounted for in determining the Expiration Value.
- Expiration If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2.
- Otherwise, the market will expire at 10:00 AM ET on the calendar day after the final day of the period.