Target Yield: 4.64545%
KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: No (98%)
Resolved: Nov 5, 2026, 4:00 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Winning Outcome
No
At 7 days out
—
At 24 hours out
—
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Nov 5, 2026, 3:47 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
Yes2%
No98%
NoWon
YesLost
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsMacro-Sensitive Assets
Rules
This outcome's exact rule is not available.
Settles via:Pyth - 5Y UST
- The market resolves based on the closing yield of the one-minute Pyth candlestick for 5-year U.S. Treasury ending at 11:00 AM EST on Nov 5, 2026. The 5-year U.S. Treasury refers to the US5Y, the current on-the-run benchmark of the 5-year U.S. Treasury Note as identified on the Source Agency. Revisions to the Underlying made after Expiration will not be accounted for in determining the Expiration Value. The settlement value is rounded to the nearest 5 decimal places. Yields are expressed as annualized percentages. The opening target and settlement yield each use the closing yield of the one-minute Pyth candlestick immediately preceding their observation time. For a 4:45–5:00 PM EDT market, the opening target uses the candle timestamped 4:44 PM, ending at 4:45 PM; settlement uses the candle timestamped 4:59 PM, ending at 5:00 PM. Candlesticks are timestamped by their start time. If reliable Pyth data is unavailable, the contract’s no-data provisions apply.
Rules for each outcome
- No
- This outcome's exact rule is not available.
- Yes
- This outcome's exact rule is not available.