KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market is closed and awaiting confirmed resolution.
Awaiting verified resolution
CoinRithm is waiting for provider-confirmed settlement before treating this market as resolved.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 27, 2026, 1:45 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Trends
Above 5.27%Awaiting result
Before close: 99% ·
Above 5.28%Awaiting result
Before close: 99% ·
Above 5.29%Awaiting result
Before close: 99% ·
Above 5.30%Awaiting result
Before close: 0% ·
Above 5.33%Awaiting result
Before close: 1% ·
Above 5.31%Awaiting result
Before close: 1% ·
Above 5.32%Awaiting result
Before close: 1% ·
Above 5.25%Awaiting result
Before close: 0% ·
Above 5.26%Awaiting result
Before close: 0% ·
Above 5.34%Awaiting result
Before close: 0% ·
Above 5.35%Awaiting result
Before close: 0% ·
Above 5.36%Awaiting result
Before close: 0% ·
Above 5.37%Awaiting result
Before close: 0% ·
Above 5.38%Awaiting result
Before close: 0% ·
Above 5.39%Awaiting result
Before close: 0% ·
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsMacro-Sensitive Assets
Rules
This outcome's exact rule is not available.
Settles via:Pyth - 30Y UST
- Settlement uses the closing Pyth yield of the one-minute candlestick immediately preceding the settlement time. For a 1:00pm ET observation, use the 12:59pm candle, covering 12:59:00pm up to but excluding 1:00:00pm ET. No averaging applies. The closing Pyth yield, expressed as a percentage, is rounded to five decimal places using round-half-up before comparison with the strike. Other sources and stale or carried-forward values cannot substitute. If reliable data is unavailable by expiration, or none is expected, settlement is at the Exchange-determined last fair price, unless a "No data" strike is listed. Corrections, expiration and Rule 7.1 review follow the full contract rules. Kalshi is not affiliated with Pyth.
Rules for each outcome
- Above 5.27%
- If the Pyth security yield for the 30-Year U.S. Treasury Bond is above 5.27% at Oct 27, 2026 at 6:00am ET, the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 5.28%
- If the Pyth security yield for the 30-Year U.S. Treasury Bond is above 5.28% at Oct 27, 2026 at 6:00am ET, the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 5.29%
- If the Pyth security yield for the 30-Year U.S. Treasury Bond is above 5.29% at Oct 27, 2026 at 6:00am ET, the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 5.30%
- If the Pyth security yield for the 30-Year U.S. Treasury Bond is above 5.30% at Oct 27, 2026 at 6:00am ET, the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 5.33%
- If the Pyth security yield for the 30-Year U.S. Treasury Bond is above 5.33% at Oct 27, 2026 at 6:00am ET, the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 5.31%
- If the Pyth security yield for the 30-Year U.S. Treasury Bond is above 5.31% at Oct 27, 2026 at 6:00am ET, the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 5.32%
- If the Pyth security yield for the 30-Year U.S. Treasury Bond is above 5.32% at Oct 27, 2026 at 6:00am ET, the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 5.25%
- If the Pyth security yield for the 30-Year U.S. Treasury Bond is above 5.25% at Oct 27, 2026 at 6:00am ET, the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 5.26%
- If the Pyth security yield for the 30-Year U.S. Treasury Bond is above 5.26% at Oct 27, 2026 at 6:00am ET, the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 5.34%
- If the Pyth security yield for the 30-Year U.S. Treasury Bond is above 5.34% at Oct 27, 2026 at 6:00am ET, the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 5.35%
- If the Pyth security yield for the 30-Year U.S. Treasury Bond is above 5.35% at Oct 27, 2026 at 6:00am ET, the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 5.36%
- If the Pyth security yield for the 30-Year U.S. Treasury Bond is above 5.36% at Oct 27, 2026 at 6:00am ET, the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 5.37%
- If the Pyth security yield for the 30-Year U.S. Treasury Bond is above 5.37% at Oct 27, 2026 at 6:00am ET, the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 5.38%
- If the Pyth security yield for the 30-Year U.S. Treasury Bond is above 5.38% at Oct 27, 2026 at 6:00am ET, the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 5.39%
- If the Pyth security yield for the 30-Year U.S. Treasury Bond is above 5.39% at Oct 27, 2026 at 6:00am ET, the market resolves to Yes.