KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: Above 5.36% (99%)
Limited resolution evidence
CoinRithm can show the recorded outcome, but not every settlement field is provider-verified.
Probability Timeline
Above 5.36%99%
Above 5.39%99%
Above 5.42%84%
Above 5.47%0%
Above 5.40%98%
Above 5.46%1%
Above 5.37%0%
Above 5.38%0%
Above 5.41%0%
Above 5.43%0%
Above 5.44%0%
Above 5.45%0%
Above 5.48%6%
Above 5.49%5%
Above 5.50%0%
Above 5.51%0%
Above 5.52%0%
Above 5.53%0%
Above 5.36%Won
Before close: 99% ·
Above 5.39%Lost
Before close: 97% ·
Above 5.40%Lost
Before close: 96% ·
Above 5.42%Lost
Before close: 0% ·
Above 5.47%Lost
Before close: 1% ·
Above 5.46%Lost
Before close: 0% ·
Above 5.37%Lost
Before close: 0% ·
Above 5.38%Lost
Before close: 0% ·
Above 5.41%Lost
Before close: 0% ·
Above 5.43%Lost
Before close: 0% ·
Above 5.44%Lost
Before close: 0% ·
Above 5.45%Lost
Before close: 0% ·
Above 5.48%Lost
Before close: 0% ·
Above 5.49%Lost
Before close: 0% ·
Above 5.50%Lost
Before close: 0% ·
Above 5.51%Lost
Before close: 0% ·
Above 5.52%Lost
Before close: 0% ·
Above 5.53%Lost
Before close: 0% ·
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Rules
If the Pyth security yield for the 30-Year U.S. Treasury Bond is above 5.36% at Oct 20, 2026 at 2:00pm ET, the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Pyth - 30Y UST
- Settlement uses the closing Pyth yield of the one-minute candlestick immediately preceding the settlement time. For a 1:00pm ET observation, use the 12:59pm candle, covering 12:59:00pm up to but excluding 1:00:00pm ET. No averaging applies. The closing Pyth yield, expressed as a percentage, is rounded to five decimal places using round-half-up before comparison with the strike. Other sources and stale or carried-forward values cannot substitute. If reliable data is unavailable by expiration, or none is expected, settlement is at the Exchange-determined last fair price, unless a "No data" strike is listed. Corrections, expiration and Rule 7.1 review follow the full contract rules. Kalshi is not affiliated with Pyth.
Rules for each outcome
- Above 5.36%
- If the Pyth security yield for the 30-Year U.S. Treasury Bond is above 5.36% at Oct 20, 2026 at 2:00pm ET, the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 5.39%
- If the Pyth security yield for the 30-Year U.S. Treasury Bond is above 5.39% at Oct 20, 2026 at 2:00pm ET, the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 5.40%
- If the Pyth security yield for the 30-Year U.S. Treasury Bond is above 5.40% at Oct 20, 2026 at 2:00pm ET, the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 5.42%
- If the Pyth security yield for the 30-Year U.S. Treasury Bond is above 5.42% at Oct 20, 2026 at 2:00pm ET, the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 5.47%
- If the Pyth security yield for the 30-Year U.S. Treasury Bond is above 5.47% at Oct 20, 2026 at 2:00pm ET, the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 5.46%
- If the Pyth security yield for the 30-Year U.S. Treasury Bond is above 5.46% at Oct 20, 2026 at 2:00pm ET, the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 5.37%
- If the Pyth security yield for the 30-Year U.S. Treasury Bond is above 5.37% at Oct 20, 2026 at 2:00pm ET, the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 5.38%
- If the Pyth security yield for the 30-Year U.S. Treasury Bond is above 5.38% at Oct 20, 2026 at 2:00pm ET, the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 5.41%
- If the Pyth security yield for the 30-Year U.S. Treasury Bond is above 5.41% at Oct 20, 2026 at 2:00pm ET, the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 5.43%
- If the Pyth security yield for the 30-Year U.S. Treasury Bond is above 5.43% at Oct 20, 2026 at 2:00pm ET, the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 5.44%
- If the Pyth security yield for the 30-Year U.S. Treasury Bond is above 5.44% at Oct 20, 2026 at 2:00pm ET, the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 5.45%
- If the Pyth security yield for the 30-Year U.S. Treasury Bond is above 5.45% at Oct 20, 2026 at 2:00pm ET, the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 5.48%
- If the Pyth security yield for the 30-Year U.S. Treasury Bond is above 5.48% at Oct 20, 2026 at 2:00pm ET, the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 5.49%
- If the Pyth security yield for the 30-Year U.S. Treasury Bond is above 5.49% at Oct 20, 2026 at 2:00pm ET, the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 5.50%
- If the Pyth security yield for the 30-Year U.S. Treasury Bond is above 5.50% at Oct 20, 2026 at 2:00pm ET, the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 5.51%
- If the Pyth security yield for the 30-Year U.S. Treasury Bond is above 5.51% at Oct 20, 2026 at 2:00pm ET, the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 5.52%
- If the Pyth security yield for the 30-Year U.S. Treasury Bond is above 5.52% at Oct 20, 2026 at 2:00pm ET, the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 5.53%
- If the Pyth security yield for the 30-Year U.S. Treasury Bond is above 5.53% at Oct 20, 2026 at 2:00pm ET, the market resolves to Yes.