KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: Above 4.67% (99%)
Limited resolution evidence
CoinRithm can show the recorded outcome, but not every settlement field is provider-verified.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 20, 2026, 3:55 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
Above 4.67%99%
Above 4.66%0%
Above 4.68%0%
Above 4.69%0%
Above 4.70%0%
Above 4.71%96%
Above 4.72%0%
Above 4.73%0%
Above 4.74%0%
Above 4.75%0%
Above 4.76%0%
Above 4.77%0%
Above 4.78%0%
Above 4.79%0%
Above 4.80%0%
Above 4.81%0%
Above 4.82%0%
Above 4.83%0%
Above 4.67%Won
Above 4.66%Lost
Above 4.68%Lost
Above 4.69%Lost
Above 4.70%Lost
Above 4.71%Lost
Above 4.72%Lost
Above 4.73%Lost
Above 4.74%Lost
Above 4.75%Lost
Above 4.76%Lost
Above 4.77%Lost
Above 4.78%Lost
Above 4.79%Lost
Above 4.80%Lost
Above 4.81%Lost
Above 4.82%Lost
Above 4.83%Lost
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Rules
If the Pyth security yield for the 2-Year U.S. Treasury Note is above 4.67% at Oct 20, 2026 at 12:00pm ET, the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Pyth - 2Y UST
- Settlement uses the closing Pyth yield of the one-minute candlestick immediately preceding the settlement time. For a 1:00pm ET observation, use the 12:59pm candle, covering 12:59:00pm up to but excluding 1:00:00pm ET. No averaging applies. The closing Pyth yield, expressed as a percentage, is rounded to five decimal places using round-half-up before comparison with the strike. Other sources and stale or carried-forward values cannot substitute. If reliable data is unavailable by expiration, or none is expected, settlement is at the Exchange-determined last fair price, unless a "No data" strike is listed. Corrections, expiration and Rule 7.1 review follow the full contract rules. Kalshi is not affiliated with Pyth.
Rules for each outcome
- Above 4.67%
- If the Pyth security yield for the 2-Year U.S. Treasury Note is above 4.67% at Oct 20, 2026 at 12:00pm ET, the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 4.66%
- If the Pyth security yield for the 2-Year U.S. Treasury Note is above 4.66% at Oct 20, 2026 at 12:00pm ET, the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 4.68%
- If the Pyth security yield for the 2-Year U.S. Treasury Note is above 4.68% at Oct 20, 2026 at 12:00pm ET, the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 4.69%
- If the Pyth security yield for the 2-Year U.S. Treasury Note is above 4.69% at Oct 20, 2026 at 12:00pm ET, the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 4.70%
- If the Pyth security yield for the 2-Year U.S. Treasury Note is above 4.70% at Oct 20, 2026 at 12:00pm ET, the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 4.71%
- If the Pyth security yield for the 2-Year U.S. Treasury Note is above 4.71% at Oct 20, 2026 at 12:00pm ET, the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 4.72%
- If the Pyth security yield for the 2-Year U.S. Treasury Note is above 4.72% at Oct 20, 2026 at 12:00pm ET, the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 4.73%
- If the Pyth security yield for the 2-Year U.S. Treasury Note is above 4.73% at Oct 20, 2026 at 12:00pm ET, the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 4.74%
- If the Pyth security yield for the 2-Year U.S. Treasury Note is above 4.74% at Oct 20, 2026 at 12:00pm ET, the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 4.75%
- If the Pyth security yield for the 2-Year U.S. Treasury Note is above 4.75% at Oct 20, 2026 at 12:00pm ET, the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 4.76%
- If the Pyth security yield for the 2-Year U.S. Treasury Note is above 4.76% at Oct 20, 2026 at 12:00pm ET, the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 4.77%
- If the Pyth security yield for the 2-Year U.S. Treasury Note is above 4.77% at Oct 20, 2026 at 12:00pm ET, the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 4.78%
- If the Pyth security yield for the 2-Year U.S. Treasury Note is above 4.78% at Oct 20, 2026 at 12:00pm ET, the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 4.79%
- If the Pyth security yield for the 2-Year U.S. Treasury Note is above 4.79% at Oct 20, 2026 at 12:00pm ET, the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 4.80%
- If the Pyth security yield for the 2-Year U.S. Treasury Note is above 4.80% at Oct 20, 2026 at 12:00pm ET, the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 4.81%
- If the Pyth security yield for the 2-Year U.S. Treasury Note is above 4.81% at Oct 20, 2026 at 12:00pm ET, the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 4.82%
- If the Pyth security yield for the 2-Year U.S. Treasury Note is above 4.82% at Oct 20, 2026 at 12:00pm ET, the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 4.83%
- If the Pyth security yield for the 2-Year U.S. Treasury Note is above 4.83% at Oct 20, 2026 at 12:00pm ET, the market resolves to Yes.