FutuurCheck availabilityVerified resolution dataData quality warningNot meaningfully priced
Data as of Oct 21, 2026, 10:33 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current implied probability
No 100%
No 100%Market quality
30 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
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Market data
Updated 1 minute ago
Trends
Rules
This market resolves on whether INPE's PRODES initial estimate of Legal Amazon deforestation for August 2026 to July 2027 is lower than the initial estimate for August 2025 to July 2026.
- Both figures are annual totals from Brazil's official PRODES monitoring system, and the 2027 estimate is expected in the second half of 2027.
- FULL DETAILS
- If INPE's PRODES initial estimate of the annual deforestation rate in the Legal Amazon for PRODES year 2027 (August 1, 2026 to July 31, 2027) is lower than PRODES's initial estimate for PRODES year 2026 (August 1, 2025 to July 31, 2026), this market will resolve to "Yes"; otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
- Both are cumulative annual figures, so deforestation within the 2027 reference period counts even if it occurred before this market was published; figures for any other PRODES year, and consolidated or revised figures, are not taken into account.
- The Primary Designated Source is the PRODES Amazônia annual deforestation rate (initial estimate, in km²) published by Brazil's National Institute for Space Research (INPE), e.g. on terrabrasilis.dpi.inpe.br.
