FutuurCheck availabilityVerified resolution dataCurrent implied probability
8,000 or above 33.3%Leader of 6 outcomesVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
8,000 or above 33.3%Market quality
35 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$4.5K
Medium liquidityTraders
38
Comments
0
Market data
Updated 1 minute ago
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Robinhood event contracts trading volume in Q3
KalshiWill Anthropic stock begin public trading on or before November 6, 2026?
Manifold MarketsMCHI (iShares MSCI China ETF) will close above 59 on the latest trading day of 2026
Manifold MarketsWill members of Congress be banned from trading stocks before 2027?
Manifold MarketsNasdaq round-the-clock trading by December 31?
PolymarketAnyone indicted for insider trading or market manipulation for 4/7/25 events?
Manifold MarketsRules
This set of markets predicts the official closing price of the S&P 500 Index (SPX) on the final regular trading day of 2026 (expected to be December 31, 2026).
- Only one market under this event will resolve to "Yes".
- If the reported value falls exactly on a boundary between two ranges, the higher range applies.
- The Primary Designated Source is the official S&P 500 (SPX) closing level for that session as published by S&P Dow Jones Indices, the index's official administrator; the daily "Close" value reported by major financial data providers (e.g., Yahoo Finance under "Historical Prices," Bloomberg, Reuters) may be used as a guide.
- If the final trading day's session is shortened (e.g., a holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session is used.
- If no official closing price is published for that session (e.g., a trading halt into the close, system failure, or other disruption), the last valid regular-session on-exchange price is used as the effective close.
