Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-Prognose
Ja 88.2%
Prognostiker
28
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Prognose
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Aktualisiert vor 11 Stunden
Veraltet4. März 23, 20:53 UTC2. Mai 29, 04:59 UTC
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Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will a proof of Fermat's Last Theorem simple enough for Fermat to have possessed be found by 2027?
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Manifold MarketsWill Kevin Buzzard successfully fulfill his grant specs of formalizing Fermat's Last Theorem in Lean within 5 years?
Manifold MarketsWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
PolymarketWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
KalshiWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
KalshiRegeln
The resolves "YES" if by the market close date, there is a publically-downloadable full formal proof of the modularity theorem (formerly known as the Taniyama-Shimura Conjecture) in a theorem-proving language such as Coq, Lean, or Isabelle.
Offene Märkte
ScienceKALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2035+10.0pt85%
- Before 2030+7.0pt83%
- Before 2029+17.9pt50%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 210.956,9 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 110.461,9 €
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt4%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- April 300%
+3 weitere Ergebnisse
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 2029-1.0pt20%
- Before 202812%
- Before 20275%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 28,6 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 21.315,2 €
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No96%
- Yes+1.9pt4%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 1,6 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 5178,9 €
KALSHIWhen will Intellia Therapeutics submit a BLA for Lonvo-z?
- before October+64.0pt98%
- before 2027+22.0pt98%
- before December+30.0pt98%
+3 weitere Ergebnisse
KALSHIWhen will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- Before 2035+4.0pt49%
- Before 2030+18.0pt39%
- Before 2032-9.0pt39%
+1 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
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Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will we have a formalized proof of the Modularity theorem by 2029-05-01??
- Manifold Markets bewertet Yes mit 88% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will we have a formalized proof of the Modularity theorem by 2029-05-01? entschieden?
- Will we have a formalized proof of the Modularity theorem by 2029-05-01? soll am 2. Mai 2029 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will we have a formalized proof of the Modularity theorem by 2029-05-01? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: The resolves "YES" if by the market close date, there is a publically-downloadable full formal proof of the modularity theorem (formerly known as the Taniyama-Shimura Conjecture) in a theorem-proving language such as Coq, Lean, or Isabelle.