Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-Prognose
2030 or later 43.5%Führend unter 7 Optionen
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3
Fragetyp
multiple choice
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Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
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Aktualisiert vor 7 Stunden
Veraltet26. Juli 24, 09:08 UTC1. Jan. 30, 22:59 UTC
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Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will we have a formalized proof of the Modularity theorem by 2029-05-01?
Manifold MarketsWill someone in "dama iipeikou" newly solve Project Euler 696 before the end of this year?
Manifold MarketsWill the U.S. attempt a large scale Solar Radiation Modification geoengineering project before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
KalshiWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
PolymarketWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
KalshiRegeln
The Stacks Project is an extensive open-source textbook and reference work focused on algebraic geometry and related fields.
- Each lemma, theorem, definition, remark, example, and other significant items within the project is assigned a unique tag, with the current scope of the project including more than 21000 tags.
- This question resolves to the first year in which at least 11000 tags of the stacks project have been formalized in a proof assistant such as Lean, Coq, Isabelle, etc. It resolves to the last option (the named outcome) if no such milestone has been reached by the end of 2029.
- Further information on resolution criteria:
- I consider it to be almost certain that a formalization as above will require a concerted project which includes a mechanism to track the progress on the number of formalized tags.
- If such a project is created, this would be used to determine the year of resolution above.
Offene Märkte
ScienceKALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2035+19.9pt95%
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+2 weitere Ergebnisse
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POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt4%
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- April 300%
+3 weitere Ergebnisse
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
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+5 weitere Ergebnisse
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+1 weitere Ergebnisse
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- Yes-0.9pt3%
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- 4.2-4.4m-20.9pt26.5%
- 4.6-4.8m+0.8pt2.9%
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Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für When will the majority of the Stacks project be formalized??
- Manifold Markets bewertet 2030 or later mit 44% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird When will the majority of the Stacks project be formalized? entschieden?
- When will the majority of the Stacks project be formalized? soll am 1. Januar 2030 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird When will the majority of the Stacks project be formalized? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: The Stacks Project is an extensive open-source textbook and reference work focused on algebraic geometry and related fields.