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  1. Prognosemärkte
  2. Wissenschaft
  3. 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?

9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?

0.1% (24h)WissenschaftYearly6Mon
PolymarketPolymarketVerfügbarkeit prüfenKein KYC2% Gebühr
Aktuelle implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit
Ja
Ja 7%
Marktqualitat

60 / 100

Mittlere Qualität
24h-Volumen

79,3 €

Liquidität

9615,4 €

Mittlere Liquidität
Geld / Brief

6.4% / 6.6%

Spread

3.1%

Mittlerer Spread
7d-Änderung

-0.6%

Marktdaten

Aktualisiert vor 6 Minuten

8. Dez. 25, 23:2831. Dez. 26, 0:00

Trends

Ergebnis24hWahrscheinlichkeit

Gewähltes Ergebnis

Yes7%

Regeln

This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
  • The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
  • If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source.
  • If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
  • After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude.

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Regeln

This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
  • The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
  • If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source.
  • If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
  • After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude.