Will California experience a 7.0 or above magnitude earthquake in 2026?
0.4 Pkt. (24h)WetterQuarterly2Mon
PolymarketVerfügbarkeit prüfenKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenGut kalibriertMittelwert des gewählten Orderbuchs
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Nein 95%
Nein 95%Marktqualitat
≤49 / 100
Niedrige Qualität24h-Volumen
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Liquidität
711,6 €
Niedrige LiquiditätOpen Interest
1566,3 $
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Kommentare
2
7d-Änderung
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Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 10 Minuten
24. Juli 26, 18:34 UTC31. Dez. 26, 16:59 UTC
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- Mindestorder (Anteile):
- 5
- Preisschritt:
- 0,1 Prozentpunkte
- Gebühren:
- Ja
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Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
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Manifold MarketsWhere will the largest magnitude Earthquake be in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a 6.7 or greater magnitude earthquake in San Francisco in 2026?
Manifold MarketsRegeln
This market will resolve "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) (https://www.usgs.gov/programs/earthquake-hazards/lists-maps-and-statistics) reports at least one earthquake of moment magnitude (Mw) 7.0 or greater with an epicenter located within the state of California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
- The state of California includes the entirety of California as recognized under U.S. law including offshore areas within California's territorial boundaries.
- Earthquakes occurring on the California border must have their USGS-listed epicenter coordinates fall within California's boundaries.
- Any individual event meeting the magnitude and location criteria resolves the market "Yes", regardless of whether it is classified as a mainshock, aftershock, or foreshock.
- Resolution will be based on the USGS's final reviewed magnitude, not preliminary estimates, regardless of when that review is published, but the qualifying earthquake needs to have occurred within California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET.