Will there be an international moratorium on frontier AGI development by EOY 2033?
GeopolitikKIOne-OffEuropeRegulierungChinaPolitik7JManifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 76.8%
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Aktualisiert vor 7 Stunden
Veraltet24. März 26, 14:41 UTC31. Dez. 33, 23:59 UTC
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PolymarketRegeln
This market resolves YES if, before January 1, 2034, there is a formal, publicly announced international agreement or coordinated policy that constitutes a moratorium on frontier AGI development, meeting the criteria below.
- The concept of “moratorium” here refers to a halt or prohibition on training or deploying frontier AI systems at or beyond certain established threshold (may it be capabilies, scale, speed, or something else meanigfully correlated with general capabilities), combined with serious enforcement mechanisms, not merely voluntary guidelines or safety recommendations.
- Core Resolution Criteria
- The market resolves YES if ALL of the following conditions are met:
- Substance: Actual Moratorium
- A policy, treaty, or coordinated set of national policies explicitly aims to:
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Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will there be an international moratorium on frontier AGI development by EOY 2033??
- Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 77% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will there be an international moratorium on frontier AGI development by EOY 2033? entschieden?
- Will there be an international moratorium on frontier AGI development by EOY 2033? soll am 31. Dezember 2033 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will there be an international moratorium on frontier AGI development by EOY 2033? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: This market resolves YES if, before January 1, 2034, there is a formal, publicly announced international agreement or coordinated policy that constitutes a moratorium on frontier AGI development, meeting the criteria below.